2010 Census: New Mexico Hispanics Outnumber White Population

New Mexico is now majority - minority state

Figures released yesterday by the Census Bureau show during the past decade, New Mexico joined California as a majority-minority state: The percentage of whites in the New Mexico population declined from 52 percent in 2000 to 45 percent in 2010, while the percentage of Latinos rose from 24.6 percent to 46.3 percent. Minorities: 58.8% of which Hispanic or Latino 46.3% (24.6% change from 2000 -2010), black 2.1%, American Indian 9.4%, and Asian 1%.

New Mexico is hardly alone in this epochal demographic shift. In the first four states for which the Census Bureau released detailed information - New Jersey, Louisiana, Mississippi and Virginia - the number of whites under age 18 actually declined in the past decade. The numbers of Latinos and Asians among the young, by contrast, are soaring, and they are highest among the youngest.

Nationally, whites are now a minority - 49.9 percent - of Americans age 3 and under. In eight states and the District, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution's William Frey, minorities comprise the majority in pre-K and kindergarten. Looking at all school enrollment, from pre-K through graduate school, Frey told the New York Times' Sabrina Tavernise, whites were 58.8 percent of all students in 2009, down from 64.6 percent in 2000.

What these numbers mean is simply the Republicans have an existential problem. As America becomes increasingly multiracial, the Republicans have elected to become increasingly white.

The GOP's response to this epochal demographic change has been to do everything in its power to keep America particularly its electorate as white as can be. Republicans have obstructed minorities from voting; required Latinos to present papers if the police ask for them; opposed the Dream Act, which would have conferred citizenship on young immigrants who served in our armed forces or went to college; and called for denying the constitutional right to citizenship to American-born children of undocumented immigrants.

In Nevada, New Mexico, California and Colorado last fall, the Republicans ran statewide candidates who embraced Arizona's draconian racial identification law. And massive turnout from Latinos, who overwhelmingly voted Democratic, defeated those candidates except for New Mexico. Undaunted, the Republicans since November have doubled down on their anti-immigrant jihad - rejecting the Dream Act during the lame-duck congressional session, continuing to call for more mass deportations and the denial of birthright citizenship. Where once a sizable number of Republican legislators and President George W. Bush were open to immigration reform, hardly any even broach the topic today amid the ever-rightward gallop of the GOP's voting base, which itself grows whiter every year.

Given the growth of America's Latino population, and the Republicans' intensifying and reciprocated hostility to Latinos, the GOP's only long-term hope for clinging to power is to find ways to restrict the franchise as much as possible to reliably white Americans. In nearly two dozen states, Republicans have pledged to introduce legislation to require various forms of identification at polling places.

The latest wrinkle in limiting minority representation has popped up in Texas, which is going to gain four new congressional seats as a result of the largely Latino population growth the state experienced over the past decade. Latinos account for 65 percent of the state's growth during that time. Last month, three anti-immigrant activists asked a court to rule undocumented immigrants must not be counted for purposes of the impending decennial redistricting, though the census has tallied residents, not citizens, since it was first conducted in 1790. They are not asking Texas forfeit one or two of its new House seats, mind you. They are merely asking, in effect, districts with substantial Latino populations, in which it is assumed a disproportionate number of the undocumented reside, be made larger than other districts to account for the non-citizens. This would result, of course, in fewer Latino-majority - and fewer Democratic-majority - districts.

The Texas lawsuit, which evokes memories of the constitutional clause that enabled our slave states to count each slave as three-fifths of a human being in order to enlarge those states' congressional delegations, may well go nowhere. But the transformation of the Republican Party from its origins as the party that favored freedom and as the franchise for all Americans into a party whose continued success depends on restricting that franchise is all but complete. Increasingly, that looks to be the only way that the GOP can keep Texas - and the rest of its electoral college base - red.

New Mexico Crucial for Electoral College Votes in 2012

According to Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won the important Latino battleground states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida on his way to winning 365 total electoral college votes.

The 46 electors in those four key states back in 2008 were part of the coalition, but in the ended they served more to run up the score, than provide the margin of victory. In 2012, due to declining approval of Obama among Whites, and a change in the number of electoral college votes during reapportionment, Latino voters, and Latino influence states are likely to play a very crucial role in determining which candidate gets to 270 electors.

The four Latino battleground states have gained 3 seats in the U.S. House, resulting in 3 additional electoral college votes – 1 in Nevada and 2 in Florida. While Obama carried all four of these Latino states in 2008, the other states he won saw a loss of 9 electoral college votes in reapportionment, for a net loss of 6.

Thus, the starting point for 2012 is 359 electors for Obama and 179 for the Republican candidate with states breaking as they did in 2008. However, Obama approval hovers below 50%, ranging from 46% – 54% depending on the poll. That leaves a number of states he won in 2008 as likely Republican pick-ups in 2012.

The most likely pick-ups for the Republicans in 2012 are North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, and the 2nd House district in Nebraska — that amounts to a total of 58 electoral college votes, dropping Obama to perhaps 301 electors, to 237 for the Republican opponent, under the new electoral vote state totals following the 2010 Census numbers.

While a dozen or so states will be targeted as battlegrounds in 2012, the 49 votes up for grabs in the four key Latino influence states may be the most competitive, and the most important for Obama to secure. These four states and their 49 electoral college votes have demonstrated growth for two straight reapportionments – they had 42 combined votes in the 2000 election, grew to 46 for 2004-2008, and now hold 49 votes; growth that was largely driven by the Latino population, as Sylvia Manzano points out. Not only are they growing, but they are highly competitive.

In 2010, New Mexico and Nevada elected Republican Latino governors, and Florida a Republican Latino U.S. Senator, creating some buzz that with these surrogates, Republicans may attempt to chip away at Obama’s strong Latino numbers in each state in 2008.

Indeed, if Obama has only 301 votes leaning towards his column in 2012 these 49 Latino-influence electoral votes are absolutely crucial – without which he’d be left with just 252 votes. Can he win Ohio in 2012? Maybe. But is he willing to risk re-election on the Buckeye state, or is there more of an opportunity for him in Latino-influence states?

There are limitless possibilities of dividing up the electoral map as we look towards 2012, however it is almost impossible for Obama (as it was for Kerry) to get to 270 electors without winning a minimum of 3 out of 4 of these Latino-influence states. For example, if Obama loses Florida (29 votes) but wins Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5) he would end up with 272 votes and be re-elected. If he fails to win New Mexico (as Kerry did in 2004), those five electors shift to the GOP side giving them 271 votes. If Obama wins New Mexico, but can’t hold Nevada, those six electors would give the GOP 272 votes. Anyway you look at the map in 2012, Obama needs to hold all three of these critical Southwestern states, and the Latino vote, growing in size and influence, will certainly make the difference, just as they did in 2010.